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101.
Snow model sensitivity analysis to understand spatial and temporal snow dynamics in a high‐elevation catchment 下载免费PDF全文
In this paper, we addressed a sensitivity analysis of the snow module of the GEOtop2.0 model at point and catchment scale in a small high‐elevation catchment in the Eastern Italian Alps (catchment size: 61 km2). Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent at the point scale were compared with measured data at four locations from 2009 to 2013. At the catchment scale, simulated snow‐covered area (SCA) was compared with binary snow cover maps derived from moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat satellite imagery. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the effect of different model parameterizations on model performance at both scales and the effect of different thresholds of simulated snow depth on the agreement with MODIS data. Our results at point scale indicated that modifying only the “snow correction factor” resulted in substantial improvements of the snow model and effectively compensated inaccurate winter precipitation by enhancing snow accumulation. SCA inaccuracies at catchment scale during accumulation and melt period were affected little by different snow depth thresholds when using calibrated winter precipitation from point scale. However, inaccuracies were strongly controlled by topographic characteristics and model parameterizations driving snow albedo (“snow ageing coefficient” and “extinction of snow albedo”) during accumulation and melt period. Although highest accuracies (overall accuracy = 1 in 86% of the catchment area) were observed during winter, lower accuracies (overall accuracy < 0.7) occurred during the early accumulation and melt period (in 29% and 23%, respectively), mostly present in areas with grassland and forest, slopes of 20–40°, areas exposed NW or areas with a topographic roughness index of ?0.25 to 0 m. These findings may give recommendations for defining more effective model parameterization strategies and guide future work, in which simulated and MODIS SCA may be combined to generate improved products for SCA monitoring in Alpine catchments. 相似文献
102.
A pushover-based seismic risk assessment and loss estimation methodology for masonry buildings is introduced. It enables estimation of loss by various performance measures such as the probability of exceeding a designated economic loss, the expected annual loss, and the expected loss given a seismic intensity. The methodology enables the estimation of the economic loss directly from the results of structural analysis, which combines pushover analysis and incremental dynamic analysis of an equivalent SDOF model. The use of the methodology is demonstrated by means of two variants of a three-storey masonry building both of which have the same geometry, but they are built, respectively, from hollow clay masonry (model H) and solid brick masonry (model S). The probability of collapse given the selected design earthquake corresponding to a return period of 475 years was found to be negligible for model H, which indicates the proper behaviour of such a structure when designed according to the current building codes. However, the corresponding probability of collapse of model S was very high (46%). The expected total loss given the design earthquake was estimated to amount to 28 000 € and 290 000 €, respectively, for models H and S. The expected annual loss per 100 m2 of gross floor area was estimated to amount to 75 € and 191 €, respectively, for models H and S. For the presented examples, it was also observed that nonstructural elements contributed more than 50% of the total loss. 相似文献
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104.
本研究以围绕着白龙江流域的甘肃省南部的宕昌县、舟曲县和武都区部分地区为研究区,根据全国滑坡编目中得到的272个历史滑坡数据以及选取的高程、坡度、坡向、平面曲率、剖面曲率、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、降雨、岩性、距道路距离和距河流距离10种影响因子,利用三种具有代表性的定量方法:信息量模型、以及基于频率比模型的逻辑回归模型和人工神经网络模型对研究区内滑坡灾害危险性进行评价。三种评价结果均显示研究区内滑坡灾害的极高和高危险区主要沿白龙江河谷地区呈带状分布。从危险性分区图可看出,人工神经网络模型得到的分区图较为合理,既表现出沿河谷地区集中分布的趋势,也呈现出对滑坡历史数据较为独立的特征,这一研究结果与前人研究结果一致。根据受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)对三种模型的精度进行检验,检验得到的AUC值分别为0.818、0.829和0.837,说明三种评价结果均具有较高的可靠性,基于频率比模型的人工神经网络模型相比其他两个模型具有更好的评价精度,能更好地进行滑坡危险性的预测和评价,其中高程、降雨、岩性以及距道路距离对评价结果影响更大,这四种影响因子重要性值占比为52.1%。为该地区的城市扩建与灾害预防预测提供了参考。 相似文献
105.
城市层面的火灾风险评估主要包括火灾危险性、危害性及救援能力等方面。本文选取火灾危险性评估进行针对性研究,在大数据思维的指导下,以相关关系代替因果关系,采用多源数据对评估指标权重、分值进行率定,得出福州市城区火灾危险性时空分布图。首先利用高德地图API对消防历史出警记录进行地址解析,将近万条火灾出警地址空间落点,获得福州市历史火灾空间分布;然后综合城市用地性质现状、用地开发性质、人口分布热力图等多源异构数据,探索其与历史火灾空间分布的相关性;最后以福州城区为例,初步实现具有充分数理支撑的火灾危险性评估方法,形成火灾危险性动态评估成果,为城市消防规划等提供支撑和依据。 相似文献
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107.
Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany 下载免费PDF全文
Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
108.
Earthquake simulation technologies are advancing to the stage of enabling realistic simulations of past earthquakes as well as characterizations of more extreme events, thus holding promise of yielding novel insights and data for earthquake engineering. With the goal of developing confidence in the engineering applications of simulated ground motions, this paper focuses on validation of simulations for response history analysis through comparative assessments of building performance obtained using sets of recorded and simulated motions. Simulated ground motions of past earthquakes, obtained through a larger validation study of the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Platform, are used for the case study. Two tall buildings, a 20‐story concrete frame and a 42‐story concrete core wall building, are analyzed under comparable sets of simulated and recorded motions at increasing levels of ground motion intensity, up to structural collapse, to check for statistically significant differences between the responses to simulated and recorded motions. Spectral shape and significant duration are explicitly considered when selecting ground motions. Considered demands include story drift ratios, floor accelerations, and collapse response. These comparisons not only yield similar results in most cases but also reveal instances where certain simulated ground motions can result in biased responses. The source of bias is traced to differences in correlations of spectral values in some of the stochastic ground motion simulations. When the differences in correlations are removed, simulated and recorded motions yield comparable results. This study highlights the utility of physics‐based simulations, and particularly the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Platform as a useful tool for engineering applications. 相似文献
109.
机房是移动通信基站的重要组成部分,其地震易损性将决定基站在震后的功能状态,即基站所辖范围内的移动通信服务在震后是否可以正常使用。在对我国北方某市典型落地通信基站机房进行实地考察的基础上,确定了影响机房地震后使用功能的重要设施(即基站板房、内部走线架、通信机柜和蓄电池组);随后采用有限元软件ABAQUS分别建立了这些设施的数值模型,通过Pushover分析确定了每种设施的损伤模式、损伤水平评价指标及其数值;通过IDA分析得到了每种设施的抗震性能,并通过对IDA分析结果的统计得到了这些重要设施的地震易损性曲线;最后,给出了基于故障树模型的典型通信基站机房震后功能评估的方法。该工作将作为基本环节用于城市及地区移动通信系统的地震后功能状态评估与预测。 相似文献
110.